The End Of All Crossroads

Where the TAXI makes a stop, to ponder upon which road mayhap be true

Category: Russia

Chemical weapons reports in Syria, exactly as warned

“American soldiers likely will be on ground in Syria, facing not just Assad’s army, but the Iranians and the Russian armies. The Russians already have about 100,000 soldiers in Syria. There have already been 40,000 deaths in Syria. Are you ready for four million?”

By Douglas J. Hagmann

4 December 2012: And so it begins, or should I say, so it continues. CNN is now reporting that an unnamed U.S. intelligence official claims that Assad’s Syrian forces are “combining chemicals that would be used to make deadly sarin gas for use in weapons to attack rebel and civilian populations.”

As I wrote here before in various reports pertaining to Benghazi, this was the plan all along and you are seeing it play out, albeit a bit behind schedule as Obama, Clinton and their national security advisers had to coordinate the Benghazi cover-up that few admitted existed and even fewer would report. Information about the use of chemical weapons, specifically gas, was detailed in the second part of my interview with an intelligence insider:

“One aspect of the weapons plan was to set up a false flag operation to make it appear that Assad used chemical weapons against his own people. Imagine the outcry from the civilized world to the news that Assad ‘gassed’ his own people. That would be an invitation to NATO and the West to openly intervene. Don’t forget about the timing of all of this. Two months before the elections, and time was running out. The job of taking out Assad was not yet complete. Such an event would quickly advance this agenda. By this time, however, being caught and placed in a rather unenviable position between Russia and the U.S., the Turkish consul general was in a ‘CYA, clean-up’ mode, assuring that none of the chemical weapons that might have still been in Libya were headed for Turkey.”

Now, because no one has stepped in to expose the big lie behind Benghazi, it is nearly certain that the U.S. and NATO will become involved. By not exposing the big lie, American soldiers likely will be on ground in Syria, facing not just Assad’s army, but the Iranians and the Russian armies. The Russians already have about 100,000 soldiers in Syria. There have already been 40,000 deaths in Syria. Are you ready for four million?

As I wrote before, the fuse for WW III has been lit. You are witnessing history playing out right before your very eyes. I mapped out their plan. Has anyone been paying attention?

SOURCE:
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/archives/7215

Russia will back Egyptian efforts to end Israeli aggression: Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin says his country will back Egyptian efforts to put an end to the Israeli aggression in the besieged Gaza Strip.

 


In a telephone conversation with Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi on Friday, Putin said Russia planned to support Cairo’s efforts directed at normalizing the situation in the Palestinian territory, the Kremlin said in a statement.

The remarks come after Egypt’s Prime Minister Hisham Qandil visited the Gaza Strip on Friday, where he urged the world leaders to stop Tel Aviv’s attacks.

Qandil promised to intensify Egypt’s efforts to “stop this aggression and achieve a lasting truce.”

On Thursday, President Morsi also condemned the Israeli aggression as “unacceptable” and warned it could lead to instability in the region.

Some 25 people have been killed and more than 250 others injured in the new wave of attacks since November 14.

The Israeli regime frequently carries out airstrikes and other attacks on the Gaza Strip, saying the acts of aggression are being conducted for defensive purposes. However, in violation of international law, disproportionate force is always used and civilians are often killed or injured.

MAM/HMV

 

SOURCE:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/11/16/272661/russia-to-back-egypt-against-israel-putin/

Clashes over Internet rules to mark Dubai meeting

“More than 900 proposed regulatory changes have been proposed, but details have not been made public. Broad consensus is needed to adopt any items — the first major review of the U.N.’s telecommunications protocols since 1988, well before the Internet age.”

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By BRIAN MURPHY
— Dec. 3 8:50 AM EST

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The U.N.’s top telecommunications overseer sought Monday to quell worries about greater Internet controls emerging from global talks in Dubai, but any attempts for major Web regulations will likely face stiff opposition from groups led by a high-powered U.S. delegation.

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The 11-day conference, seeking to update codes last reviewed when the Web was virtually unknown, highlights the fundamental shift from tightly managed telecommunications networks to the borderless sweep of the Internet.

Some at the Dubai conference, including a 123-member U.S. delegation with envoys from tech giants such as Google Inc. and Microsoft Corp., worry that any new U.N. oversight could be used by nations such as China and Russia to justify further tightening of Web blocks and monitoring.

“Love the free and open Internet? Tell the world’s governments to keep it that way,” said a message on the main search page of Google.com with a link for comments directed to the Dubai conference, which opened Monday.

The agenda for the gathering of more than 1,900 participants from 193 nations covers possible new rules for a broad range of services such as the Internet, mobile roaming fees and satellite and fixed-line communications. Questions include how much sway the U.N. can exert over efforts such as battling cyber-crimes and expanding the Internet into developing nations.

The secretary-general of the U.N. International Telecommunications Union, Hamadoun Toure, said that accusations that the meeting could limit Web freedoms are “completely untrue” and predicted only “light-touch” regulations.

“Many countries will come to reaffirm their desire to see freedom of expression embedded in this conference,” he told reporters.

But the head of the American contingent, Ambassador Terry Kramer, said the U.S. would propose taking all Internet-related discussions off the table and concentrating on already regulated services such as phone networks.

“What we don’t want to do is bring in all the private networks, the Internet networks, the government networks, etc.,” he told The Associated Press. “That opens the door to censorship.”

The outcome of the Dubai gathering is far from certain.

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More than 900 proposed regulatory changes have been proposed, but details have not been made public. Broad consensus is needed to adopt any items — the first major review of the U.N.’s telecommunications protocols since 1988, well before the Internet age.

The gathering is also powerless to force nations to change their Internet policies, such as China’s notorious “Great Firewall” and widespread blackouts of political opposition sites in places including Iran and the Gulf Arab states. Last week, Syria’s Internet and telephone services disappeared for two days during some of the worst fighting in months to hit the capital, Damascus.

Kramer told reporters last week in Washington that all efforts should be made to avoid a “Balkanization” of the Internet in which each country would impose its own rules and standards that could disrupt the flow of commerce and information.

“That opens the door … to content censorship,” he said.

The International Trade Union Confederation, representing labor groups in more than 150 countries, claimed a bloc that includes China, Russia and several Middle East nations seeks to “pave the way for future restrictions on both Internet content or its users.”

“It is clear that some governments have an interest in changing the rules and regulations of the Internet,” the confederation said in statement Monday.

Another battle that will likely take place in Dubai is over European-backed suggestions to change the pay structure of the Web to force content providers — such as Google, Facebook Inc. and others — to kick in an extra fee to reach users across borders.

“Potentially, the content developers — they could be Googles, they could be universities — would end up being charged potentially to have traffic sent abroad,” said Kramer in Dubai. “Either way, you slow down Internet traffic and you actually exacerbate the digital divide, the income divide, because you have a lot of people who are accessing things for free.”

Advocates of the changes say the money raised could pay to expand broadband infrastructures in developing countries.

Toure said he hoped for a “landmark” accord on trying to bring broadband Internet to developing countries. “The Internet remains out of reach for two-thirds of world’s people,” said Toure, who is from Mali.

The U.N. telecommunications agency dates back to 1865, when the telegraph revolutionized the speed of information. Over the decades, it has expanded to include telephone, satellite and other advances in communications.

SOURCE:

Russia’s Tolbachik Erupts for First Time in 36 Years

By Erik KlemettiEmail AuthorNovember 27, 2012 | 8:52 pm

For the first time in 36 years, Tolbachik in Russia is erupting according to reports from Russia. KVERT, the volcano monitoring body for Kamchatka, released a bulletin describing a significant explosive eruption with the potential for ash explosions up to 10 km / 32,800 ft. With the many air routes across the northern Pacific, this eruption will need to be closely monitored for its impact on air travel over the eastern Siberian peninsula. The ash advisory from the Tokyo VAAC also mentions a report of ash at FL 330 (33,000 feet) that was spreading to the NNW. VolcanoDiscovery reported that seismicity had been creeping upwards around Tolbachik since at least early November as well. Trying to get information from some of the hastily-translated articles from Russia is, ahem, fun. One described the eruption as the “volcano’s top caldera is being filled with fresh and gushing lava” based on incandescence seen at the summit.

The last eruption of Tolbachik started in 1975 and was quite impressive, rating at least a VEI 4 with both explosive and effusive activity. However, that was a larger eruption than most over the last century at the Russian volcano and most are smaller VEI 2 eruptions. Interestingly, the 1975-76 was a mainly basaltic eruption (see above), the largest recorded in the northern Kamchatka peninsula — however, that activity did produce 13 km / 42,000 foot ash plumes as well during the creation of a series of cinder cones and a 15 square kilometer lava flow field.

Unfortunately, today’s passes by the Terra and Aqua satellite didn’t capture any plume – likely because the pass was too early, but some of the peninsula is obscured by clouds as well. However, this 2004 NASA Earth Observatory image shows the summit caldera at Tolbachik and its relative proximity to its more famous brethren, Bezymianny and Kliuchevskoi. As always, I will try to update with details as they arrive.

Update 11 PM EST 11/27: John Seach is reporting via Twitter that towns up to 35 km from the volcano have received 4 cm of ash fall from the eruption.

 

SOURCE:
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/11/first-images-of-the-tolbachik-fissure-eruption/?utm_source=Contextly&utm_medium=RelatedLinks&utm_campaign=MoreRecently

Ukraine Crushed in $1.1bn Fake Gas Deal

By Jen Alic | Thu, 29 November 2012 16:05

Certainly the folks at Gazprom are having a good snicker, reveling in the mockery that has been made of what should have been a landmark Ukraine-Spain gas deal that would have loosened Russia’s gas grip on Kiev.

Everyone wondered how Russia would respond to Ukraine’s attempt at gas independence. But this is what happens when you mess with Gazprom.

It was a horrible moment for Ukraine on Monday—all the more horrible because the whole event was televised—when the historical $1.1 billion deal it was about to sign with Spain’s Gas Natural Fenosa turned out to be fake.

Why was the deal historical? It would have secured $1.1 billion in investment for the construction of Ukraine’s first liquid natural gas (LNG) terminal on the Black Sea and a pipeline connecting the country’s vast gas network to the terminal.

More to the point, this would enable Ukraine to import by tanker up to 10 billion cubic meters of European gas at a price 20% cheaper than Gazprom. Even more to the point, it would be a major first step toward reducing Ukraine’s dependence on Russia.

The deal was that investors had apparently signed agreements through a newly formed consortium for the construction of the $1.1 billion LNG terminal.

Here’s how the ill-fated signing ceremony went down:

While Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko were cutting the ribbon on the construction of the terminal in a live televised ceremony, the country’s investment chief, Vladislav Kaskiv, was attending the official investment signing ceremony elsewhere, also via live video feed. This is where walls caved in very suddenly.

Signing on behalf of Fenosa was one Jordi Sarda Bonvehi. At the 11th hour, Fenosa let it be known that they have no idea who Bonvehi is and that he certainly does not represent the company in any way. Fenosa apparently had no idea it was signing a landmark agreement with Ukraine.

Kiev was necessarily taken aback, and Bonvehi remained conveniently silent at the signing ceremony once the news broke out.

Of course, what no one knows is how Ukrainian authorities were led to believe—during multiple rounds of negotiations—that Bonvehi was a Fenosa representative.

The story being bandied about by authorities in Kiev is now that Bonvehi was under the impression that Fenosa would sign the deal with Ukraine and that he would be given the authority to sign the deal retroactively.

But Fenosa denies it has ever considered such a deal and continues to deny any relationship at all with Bonvehi.

So where does that leave us? It leaves Ukraine in the lurch. There is no way it can fund this terminal on its own, despite its claims to the contrary. We probably don’t have to look much further than Gazprom and the Ukrainian oligarchy to find where this beautifully crafted charade was hatched.

In the meantime, Bonvehi—if such a person of that name even exists—remains elusive. No one knows who he really is or who he really works for.

More than anything, it’s an advertisement for due diligence.

By. Jen Alic of Oilprice.com

SOURCE:
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Ukraine-Crushed-in-1.1bn-Fake-Gas-Deal.html

US-led NATO intervention begins in Syria war. Patriots in Turkey

“The positioning of US anti-missile missiles in Turkey coincides with the rebels’ success in destroying the Assad regime’s key air and radar stations in southern Syria and along the Jordanian border. The two thrusts add up to a coordinated military effort in northern and southern Syria to seize control of the skies in both regions from Assad’s control and push his forces back into central Syria.”

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DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 27, 2012, 9:47 AM (GMT+02:00)

Tuesday, Nov. 27, the Middle East military spotlight swung around from Gaza to the Syrian war with steps for the start of US and NATO intervention in that conflict. Without spelling this out, a game changer began unfolding when a joint Turkish-NATO team began making a site survey for the deployment of Patriot Air and Missile Defense Systems, manned by American military teams. The team, said the statement from Ankara, will assess where to station the missiles and how many would be needed. It reiterated that the system is “for defensive purposes” and not for a “no-fly zone or offensive operations,” but just for use “against an air or missile threat from Syria.”
However, the Patriots in combination with already installed elements of the missile shield, will command an area beyond the Turkish-Syrian border – all of northern Syria up to and including the embattled towns of Aleppo and Homs, debkafile’s military sources report.
Their presence will impede the operations of Assad’s most effective and lethal means of war against the rebels in that region – air force bombardment.
The positioning of US anti-missile missiles in Turkey coincides with the rebels’ success in destroying the Assad regime’s key air and radar stations in southern Syria and along the Jordanian border. The two thrusts add up to a coordinated military effort in northern and southern Syria to seize control of the skies in both regions from Assad’s control and push his forces back into central Syria.
A part of the US-Turkish plan affects Israel. Monday, debkafile reported exclusively that in a resounding blow to Bashar Assad’s ability to fight external enemies, Syrian rebels had destroyed the Assad regime’s most important electronic warning radar station facing Israel – M-1 – Monday, Nov. 26.

This Russian-built station monitored Israeli warplanes’ takeoff and landing activities at air bases in the Negev and Hatzerim in the south and tracked them up to the Syrian border. The facility was designed to guide Syrian missiles targeting any point on the Israeli map, in sync with air defense facilities south of Damascus and on the Golan Heights. The radar’s range also covered naval movements in Mediterranean waters off the shores of Israel and Lebanon.
Western military sources told debkafile that the destruction of this vital facility has blinded the two eyes which Syrian air, air defense and missile forces had trained on Israel. It has therefore crippled, though not completely dismantled, Bashar Assad’s ability to got to war against Israel, Jordan or Saudi Arabia.
M-1 radar also swept all parts of Jordan and northern Saudi Arabia where the important Tabuk air base is situated. Deployed there in addition to the Saudi Air Force are French fighter-bombers ready to go to war against Syria.
M-1 also relayed current data on Israeli military movements to Hizballah and would have been a vital source of intelligence in a potential Lebanese Shiites offensive against the Jewish state.
The Syrian ruler and his spokesmen have frequently threatened since the eruption of the popular insurrection that if Assad had his back to the wall, the entire Middle East would go up in flames, especially Israel.

In the last two days, the Syrian rebels have made additional gains: They were able to capture areas abutting on the Jordanian border, excepting only the Ramtha border crossing. They also seized the Marj al-Sultan military air field southeast of Damascus and adjoining Syrian Army 4th Brigade bases.
Most of the men of the 82nd Infantry Brigade guarding M-1 were killed in the fighting, fled or were taken prisoner.
Our military sources notes that after M-1, the Assad regime still retains two key radar stations: M-2 in Shanshar south of Homs, which covers central and northern Syria; and M-3 near Latakia which keeps an eye on the northern region up to the Turkish border and the eastern Mediterranean up to Cyprus.
All three radar stations were linked to the Syrian general staff, air force, air defense, missile and navy operations rooms and fed them the essential real-time intelligence data needed for decision-making at the highest level. However, the loss of M-1 seriously hampers the Syria army’s capacity to take on Israel or Jordan.

 

Wheeler’s Weather Cycles by Robert A. Nelson

Wheeler’s studies were based upon many others’, including Alexander Chizhevsky (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Chizhevsky) whose studies were censored for years by Joseph Stalin.

SOUNDTRACK: Philip Glass – The Light (1987)

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Professor Raymond P. Wheeler (University of Kansas) compiled 20 centuries of historical records, and concluded from his studies that there exists a most important 100-year-cycle of climatic changes that influences human affairs in a profound manner.

The cycle occurs in four distinct phases, which are descriptive of worldwide conditions rather than specific areas. The four phases are disturbed by secondary leads and delays — as much as 10 years — in isolated and widely separated areas.Prof. Wheeler stated:


“The climatic curve is intended to represent — as far as one curve can — the weather trend in the world as a whole at any one time. The curve has no absolute significance. The meaning of the curve at any one time is relative to the pattern of the 100-year old cycle as a whole.”

The 100-year weather cycle and its phases are not of precisely equal duration. The cycle can contract to 70 years or expand to 120. The cycle is divided into a warm and a cold phase, each of which has a wet and dry period. Because people are affected by weather, the cycles of weather produce similar patterns of behavior and events in history during the same phases of the century-long weather cycle. The phases are: (1) Cold-Dry, (2) Warm-Wet, (3) Warm-Dry, and (4) Cold-Wet. We are now in a cold-dry phase, which will prevail until about 2000 A.D.

Lisbon Great Earthquake

Dr. Wheeler extended his research to reveal a continuous, universal cultural pattern of “mechanism” alternating with “humanism” that occurs throughout history synchronously with the 100-year weather cycle. During the warm and humanistic phases of the historical weather cycle, emphasis is placed on holistics: the whole person’s relationship to the world and society, basic laws of nature, modernistic art and architecture, and political “statism” emphasizing nationalism, the welfare of the nation over that of individuals. In the extreme case, dictatorships and other “absolute” forms of tyrannical government emerge, including communism and socialism. Major international wars come to pass during every warm phase of the 100-year weather cycle, when nations are powerful enough to wage such wars. During the emergence of the holistic trend, this statism degenerates into despotism in its many forms. The warm weather effectively decreases human energies and birthrates, and eventually brings about economic depression and social dependence that cannot support a war effort. Aristocratic forms of social organization prevail, rather than democracy. Warm weather produces luxury, small families, “golden ages”, and “classical” literature and art. Business booms at the end of a warm cycle, when temperatures are falling and a cold-wet phase is about to begin. Depression sets in thereafter. Such a scenario was last in effect in 1975.

During the cold and mechanistic phases of the historical weather cycle, human thought and activity is largely directed at “units” rather than whole systems: atoms, cells, numbers, individual responses, classification of data, and complexity of detail. Cold climates make us aggressive and independent, and promote revolution, civil war, and anarchy, which leads eventually and ultimately to popular reforms under democratic societies, large families, simple lifestyles, “romantic” literature and “dark ages”. Over 90% of the rulers and leaders who have been titled “great” and called “good” by historians held their positions during the cold-dry nation-building phases of the 100-year weather cycle. They helped lead their people out of the chaos marked by class riots, assassinations, and sabotage. Dr. Wheeler wrote:

“In short, there has been a pattern on the cold side that has transposed from one cold period to another throughout history, a pattern whose extreme form has been anarchy pure and simple, ranging from wars, intrigue and treachery among the governors and their loyal followers to commercial war, race and religious riots, and armed civil war among the governed. All this is the fanatic aspect of cold times. The “lethargic” aspect has always assumed the form of neglect, debauchery, and extravagance on the part of the rulers and the upper classes, and listlessness, pauperism, begging, itineracy, rapine and vagabondage among the lower classes.

“[The cold-dry phase is characterized by] General individualism, with weak governments, migrations, and other mob actions such as race riots. Class struggles, and civil wars ranging from palace intrigues to revolutions occur during the general anarchy of the Cold-Dry period. People are cosmopolitan and epicurean, borrowing culture and living by the superficial and skeptical philosophies.

“[The cold-dry phase is marked by major geophysical phenomena, including] an increase in the severity of earthquakes and volcanoes… a lowering of continental altitudes, with marine invasions on the upswings and mountain building on the downswings.”

Weather is coldest during the cold-dry phase. Near the end of the cold-dry phase, societies become stabilized by strong leadership, reformed governments, and a revival of nationalism. The wars in this phase are expansionary and imperialistic. The transition from the cold-dry to the following warm-wet period is characterized by a revival of learning, burgeoning genius, industrial revolution, and bountiful crops. Human behavior is improved by the high energy level:

“With increased vigor as a base (whatever the physiological causes may be), optimum conditions for an abundance of available energy for work occur during the period of climatic normality and on the upward crossing, or transition, from cold to warm. This is the “springtime” of the climatic cycle, while the preceding cold period was the “wintertime”. On the upswing, more than in any other place on the cycle, the human race possesses energy, above that necessary for a maintenance of the physiological engine… Here, mental and physical energy are at a maximum: hence the appearance of both good leadership and good followership; economic and political aggressiveness and enthusiasm; ability to exercise more self-control and make better judgments; predominance of constructive measures and the absence of decadent modes of behavior. With all of these are associated a greater incidence of genius, a generally higher birthrate, a more stable behavior, and a higher moral tone of society. Moreover, physical conditions are then the most favorable for economic prosperity and for the growth of stationary societies, dominated by city life, for rainfall is ample and crops are good.

“The Golden Ages of history, the best in human health and leadership, cultural output, the great periods of economic and political growth and expansion, have occurred after a toughening process has been going on that has revitalized the race and the biological level. Moreover, during cold times cultures came in contact with one another during migrations, travel exploration and colonization — all of which extended to some extent into the earlier part of the warm period.

“In the hands of a new generation, a fresh natural spirit wells up, and revolts occur against frustration. Enthusiasm, optimism, and aggressiveness, organized through a social revolution, result in a new state… As democratic government continues, it tends to become bureaucratic — either in the hands of leftovers from the previously dominant aristocracy or in the hands of a new generation of rulers who have come into power through intrigue, wealth or some other form of leverage. A new set of rebellions breaks out following the dry years of the cold side; and during these rebellions, effort is made to overcome the evils of decadence in the democratic pattern, or the tyranny left over from the previous warm times…

“A strong leader comes to the front. A new Golden Age is on, and a new cycle of imperialism begins. The revolutions result at first in the democratic reforms, because they begin on the cold side. Were it to remain cold, these reforms would remain; but as it becomes warmer, the more power the “radical” party assumes.

“After a reign of terror, the new spirit coalesces into a strong, centralized government which, from the standpoint of individual rights, is reactionary.

“During cold times the government usually attempts to control the persecution of racial or other minorities, but during the warm droughts, persecutions almost always have been government-sanctioned or government-promoted events.

“The warm-wet phase sees the climax of organized accomplishments characterized by cooperative, integrated efforts rather than individual achievements. Governments become centralized and inflexible.

“During periods of warm-dry weather, “good” (i.e., democratic) governments decline and decay under bureaucratic tyranny and plutocracy or dictatorial oligarchy. Totalitarian governments reach their climax when temperatures are highest during the warm-dry phase of the 100-year weather cycle. Concerning this, Dr. Wheeler wrote:

“It is only on the upswing and during the early part of the warm period that strong governments manifested “good” qualities such as liberality, constructiveness, benevolence, humanitarianism, foresight and stability.

“As the warm period continues, as imperialism increases, and as the state becomes militarized, the reactionary movement becomes absolutistic and totalitarian, whether under a king, a Duce, a Fuhrer or a “dictatorship of the proletariat”. The latter, by the way, is a complete misnomer as far as realities are concerned. There is no such thing as a dictatorship of the proletariat. The only way in which the proletariat has ever “ruled” at any time in history — and the only way in which it can rule — is through truly democratic movements.

(NOTE: I personally disagree of some of the portrayed being tagged as despots)

“Sometimes there is a cold break in a warm period (but not a true cold phase), usually at the peak of the sunspot cycle. Then the general energy level of the populace begins to rise, and civil wars erupt. A reformed government with new leadership then comes to power…

“Thus, when it turns cold, the individual thinks of himself first. A combination of increased energy, hardship, discontent; an over-centralized and tyrannical government; disgust with growing decadence, spurs him to fight for his individual rights. Here comes the realization that society can be improved only through the work and free expression of the capable individual.

“But because the cool break is only an interruption (only one to ten years) of the longer overall warm phase, the democratic reforms implemented then cannot survive. The state subsequently depletes its economy and its people, body and soul, in continual warfare until such capabilities become utterly exhausted by the inevitable subsequent extreme warm temperatures and drought. Dr. Wheeler explained such behavior thus:

“There are, in general, two categories into which forms of insanity fall. While these are not inclusive, they cover the majority of cases. The one category includes depression, lethargy, seclusion, flight from reality, indifference, lack of emotional tone, schizophrenia, inaction. The other includes elation, overactivity, mania, excessive emotionality, belligerence and dangerous forms of paranoia. Mental deterioration or decline, then, expresses itself either way, dividing most individuals into these two psychotic groups. On the other hand, the normal individual will fluctuate, under pressure, from one mood — the depressed and indifferent — to the other — the manic and overactive. In an extreme form, either mood is a sign of weakness.

“Societies revealed many of the same characteristics when they became unstable, or went into decline, on the warm side; for it was here that there broke out fanaticism, cruelty, and intolerance as measured by inquisitions, persecutions, pogroms, massacres, and tortures, all state-promoted. Either indifference of fanaticism in a people, then, is a sign of weakness.

Alessandro Magnasco, Interrogations in Jail

“It turned out that the more democratic countries or states generally declined through indifference, while the totalitarian and more dynamic states declined through fanaticism. The first political “psychosis” was more often Western, and the latter, Eastern; or, the first characterized by older states that had gone through several cycles; the second, the younger states of more recent unification. In any case, the appearance of these traits was certain indication of an imminent collapse into civil war.

“Again, a combination of causes — economic, political, psychological, biological, and climatic — leads to the next phase in the cycle of events. Before political unity has declined, and while fanaticism is still controlling governmental policy, temperatures start dropping, and the national spirit revives and plays into the hands of a decadent and despotic leadership. This imperialism bursts forth once more and international wars break out on the warm side of the downswing.

“We have noted that there is a strong tendency for state-promoted persecutions, pogroms, and massacres to occur during the warm-dry phases of the 100-year cycle. A graphic example is the horrible treatment by the [Nazis] of Jews in World War II.

“All of this results from the fact that, whenever it is warm for an extended period, the individual becomes less important. It is then that he is killed with the least compunction; it is then that the fanatic sacrifice for the state reaches its highest combination of circumstances…

“Wars fought during downswings of the weather cycle have always evidenced more betrayals and sabotage, and less resistance to the invasion, even inviting it at times.

“The transition to the subsequent cold-wet period is marked by decadence, which degenerates further to widespread cruelty, slavery, and slaughter, further to widespread cruelty, slavery, and slaughter, as in WW2. When the average temperature falls and rainfall increases, a general revival commences with good crops and increased activity.

“During the cold-wet phase of the Wheeler Weather Cycle, government and business become decentralized. Individualism revives in a natural, emancipated behavior. Art becomes simpler, education is increasingly “mechanistic”. These trends eventually climax in the anarchy characteristic of the cold-dry phase which follows.

“Absolutist governments will not thrive in a cold phase, when the invigorating or uncomfortable weather brings out increased expression of social discontent.

“The cold-wet phase is characterized by large sunspots appearing temporarily in a shortened sunspot cycle, and displays of the aurora borealis extending to temperate zones, lower temperatures, and increased storminess. The cold phases of the 100-year weather cycle are interrupted by a temperature rise during the sunspot maximum. Society experiences an increased birthrate, improved general health and mental vigor, mass migrations of the populace to rural areas, economic prosperity, international trade, and other forms of intercultural exchange.”

Dr. Wheeler also was able to elucidate the presence of 500-year cycles of climate throughout 2,500 years of history. Alternate 500-year cycles produce a secondary climax of extreme cold and drought coupled with massive migrations and great revolutions of society. The end of each second 500-year cycle also marks the end of a 1,000-year cycle which Dr. Wheeler also detected. The 1,000-year cycle has a very warm period in its center. Alternate 500-year cycles always end during the warm phase in the middle of the 1,000-year cycle.

The 500-year cycle of weather is distinguished by the unusual severity of every fifth cold phase in the 100-year cycle. These have occurred in the 5th century BC, and the 1st, 5th, 10th and 15th centuries A.D. Dr. Wheeler stated:

“The turning points (between old and new civilizations) occur when cold-dry times reach their maximum severity.”

Dr. Wheeler designed a “clock” of the cycles of Cold, Drought, and Civil War, illustrated in Figure 6.3. The 170-year Cycle of Civil War and the 510-year Cycle of Drought intersect at 1999, at which time we can expect another engulfing crisis. (15, 16)

Another 510-year pattern occurs in the rhythm of world dominance, alternating between the East and West. In the 510 years after about 670 BC, when the Greek and Ptolemaic empires declined, Rome entered into its peak of development. After 60 BC, Rome weakened while Asian empires developed. After 450 A.D., the Byzantine and Oriental powers declined, and Charlemagne’s empire grew, as did Britain. The next 510 years were dominated by Eastern power (Genghis and Kublai Khan, etc.). After 1470, Europe unified and extended its imperial dominion over the earth, and the United States came into power.

The next great shift of power is to the East and is exemplified by the ascendancy of China, Japan, and Russia. We are now in the 27th cold-dry phase of the 100-year weather cycle since 540 BC, and the first such since the 1800s. This is also the fifth — and coldest — phase of the 6th 500-year cycle of weather determined by Dr. Wheeler. Also, we are approaching the climax of a 1,000-year weather cycle that will produce record high temperatures during the first half of the 21st century.

Furthermore, according to Dr. Wheeler, there are possible indications that we are in a period of “reversal” of the alternate 1,000-year weather cycle, in which the evolution of humanity will take a leap forward:

“A new and probably different series of species of similar general form will begin soon, and thus the Earth is about to begin a new phase of history.

“Old civilizations collapse and new civilizations are born on the tide of climatic change. The turning points occur when cold-dry times reach their maximum severity.

“The problem is to expand democracy by voluntary means, preserving democratic institutions and laws while the expansion process is being achieved. Now, during the next few decades, this new and powerful class of voters, the laborers, must, in a sense, be absorbed into the middle class and be given middle-class concepts of free enterprise and democracy. While assuming greater responsibility, they must experience success in helping democracy work, or else, when it turns warm again and centralizing trends are under way once more, there will be nothing but stagnation and ruin ahead. If this happens, the next warm period will produce a despotism as catastrophic for modern civilizations of Greece and Rome.

“By the proper emphasis upon education in our schools and by the proper cooperation between capital and management on one hand and labor on the other, such a catastrophe can be prevented. During the next few decades when both the middle class and labor are democratically minded is the time to stabilize our institutions — enriched by the contributions and cooperation of labor — to the end that they will not collapse in the warm periods to come.

“The conflict between labor and management contains no necessary threat to society and will not culminate in socialism or communism. When viewed in the light of historical ecology, it is only the next step and expected in the evolution of true democracy. The net result of the revolution will, in the end, be greater opportunity and freedom for all classes.

“Three main facts pertain to the rise and fall of governments, that, all through the investigation, were so invariable and their relationship to climate so precise as to challenge any attempt at explanation in general terms

“First, there were the occurrences of Golden Ages, the rise of strong governments under superior leaders, the outburst of international wars on climatic upswings from long cold periods into the warm-wet phase of the climatic cycle.

“Second, the decline, onset of decadence, the growing excesses of centralized government, the emergence of dictators, tyranny, fanaticism, communism, and socialism, as the warm epoch continued, and as temperatures and dryness increased.

“Third, the occurrence of civil wars, rebellions, and revolutions, the origin and growth of democratic institutions and individualism, during cold periods… No law of chance can explain the fact that undemocratic trends are invariably associated with the warmer climatic phases, and democratic trends with the colder phases. No law of chance can explain why international wars so consistently predominate on the warm side and civil wars on the cold. Relationship so consistent, universal and precise point directly to a causal factor or set of causal factors.”

Dr. Wheeler also found that a slight average annual temperature change will produce profound changes in human behavior:

“A difference in mean annual temperature of no greater than 1.5 F, when prevailing consistently for no longer than half a decade, is sufficient, anywhere on earth, to start changes in the human behavior pattern in one direction or the other.”

Dr. Ellsworth Huntington determined the optimum temperatures for human performance to be 38 F for mental activity, and 68-70 F for physical action. The best climate for the full range of human life ranges between the mean annual temperatures of 2-47 F At this time the zones with such an optimal temperature range extend from Great Britain across Europe to the Black Sea and the Ural Mountains, across North America between southern Canada and the northeast and northwest USA, and Japan. The area of optimal temperature can be extended to include central China, the northern parts of Africa and South America, southeast Australia, and New Zealand.

The mean global temperature has decreased over 2.7 Fsince 1945. Meanwhile, the Arctic and Antarctic ice covers have increased over 15% since 1966, and glaciers in North America and Europe have begun to advance again, whereas until 1940 they had been retreating. These and many other weather signs indicate that e are now in a Cold-Dry phase of the 100-year weather cycle, and may even be entering into a mini-Ice Age.

Raymond H Wheeler

Most of the material that we have about Wheeler is found in the book Climate: The Key To Understanding Business Cycles by Raymond Wheeler, (Revised & Edited by Michael Zahorchak). This volume summarizes Raymond H. Wheeler’s extensive research with long climatic cycles and their relationship to the business cycle. In the 1930’s Wheeler began a lifetime study that analyzed world climate and cultural activities back to the dawn of recorded civilization.

Wheeler was also the creator of a huge volume known as “The Big Book” which was housed at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles until the late 1990s.

Wheeler corresponded with Dewey, and observed on one occasion that often cycles were found with similar numerical values for their periods even though in different units. This may be seen as equivalent to Dewey’s proportions of 2 and 3 and products of these, because that will link from months to years for example.

SOURCES:
Article: http://etext.ku.edu/view?docId=ksrlead/ksrl.ua.wheelerraymond.xml

Guide to the Raymond H. Wheeler Collection:
http://etext.ku.edu/view?docId=ksrlead/ksrl.ua.wheelerraymond.xml

Goodbye Petrodollar, Hello Agri-Dollar?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/24/2012 09:50 -0500

When it comes to firmly established, currency-for-commodity, self reinforcing systems in the past century of human history, nothing comes close to the petrodollar: it is safe to say that few things have shaped the face of the modern world and defined the reserve currency as much as the $2.3 trillion/year energy exports denominated exclusively in US dollars (although recent confirmations of previously inconceivable exclusions such as Turkey’s oil-for-gold trade with Iran are increasingly putting the petrodollar status quo under the microscope). But that is the past, and with rapid changes in modern technology and extraction efficiency, leading to such offshoots are renewable and shale, the days of the petrodollar “as defined” may be over. So what new trade regime may be the dominant one for the next several decades? According to some, for now mostly overheard whispering in the hallways, the primary commodity imbalance that will shape the face of global trade in the coming years is not that of energy, but that of food, driven by constantly rising food prices due to a fragmented supply-side unable to catch up with increasing demand, one in which China will play a dominant role but not due to its commodity extraction and/or processing supremacy, but the contrary: due to its soaring deficit for agricultural products, and in which such legacy trade deficit culprits as the US will suddenly enjoy a huge advantage in both trade and geopolitical terms. Coming soon: the agri-dollar.

But first, some perspectives from Karim Bitar on CEO of Genus, on what is sure to be the biggest marginal player of the agri-dollar revolution, China, whose attempt to redefine itself as a consumption-driven superpower will fail epically and very violently, unless it is able to find a way to feed its massive, rising middle class in a cheap and efficient manner. But before that even, take note of the following chart which takes all you know about global trade surplus and deficit when narrowed down to what may soon be that all important agricultural (hence food) category, and flips it around on its head.

Karim Bitar on China:

Structurally, China is at a huge disadvantage as it accounts for 20% of the world’s population, but only 7% of arable land. Compare that with Brazil which has the reverse of those ratios. What that does for a country like China is to incentivise the adoption of technification. Let’s look at their porcine market, which represents 50% of global production and consumption. In China, to slaughter roughly 600 mn pigs per year, which is about six times the demand in the US, they have a breeding herd of about 50 mn animals. In the US, the comparable number is only about 6 mn so there is a huge productivity lag.

Owing to its structural disadvantages, China is much more focused on increasing efficiency. For that, it needs to accelerate technification. So, we’re seeing a whole series of government incentives at a national level, a provincial level and a local level, focusing on the need to move toward integrated pork production because that’s a key way to optimise total economics, both in terms of pig production, slaughtering, processing and also actually taking the pork out into the marketplace.

The Chinese government is important as a customer to us because of its clarity of vision on food security. It has seen the Arab Spring, and it is cognisant of the strong socio-political implications of higher food prices. Pork prices could account for about 25% of the CPI, so it knows it can be a major issue. It’s because of all these pressures, that China is more focused on responding to the food challenge. It’s a sort of a burning platform there.

…Take milk production in China and India. China is basically trying to leapfrog and avoid small-scale farming by adopting a US model. In the US, you tend to have very large herds. Today about 30% of US milk production is from herds of 2,000 plus, and we expect that to reach 60% within the next five years. Today in China, there are already several hundred dairy herds of over 1,000. However in India, there’ll be less than 50. The average dairy herd size is closer to five, so it’s very fragmented. So the reality is that a place like China, because of government policies, subsidies and a much more demanding focused approach to becoming self-sufficient, has a much greater ability to respond to a supply challenge rapidly.

The problem for China, and to a lesser extent India, however one defines it, is that it will need increasingly more food, processed with ever greater efficiency for the current conservative regime to be able to preserve the status quo, all else equal. And for a suddenly very food trade deficit-vulnerable China, it means that the biggest winners may be Brazil, the US and Canada. Oh and Africa. The only question is how China will adapt in a new world in which it finds itself in an odd position: a competitive trade disadvantage, especially its primary nemesis: the USA.

So for those curious how a world may look like under the Agri-dollar, read on for some timely views from GS’ Hugo Scott-Gall.

Meaty problems, simmering solutions

What potential impacts could a further re-pricing of food have on the world? Why might food re-price? Because demand is set to rise faster than supply can respond. The forces pushing demand higher are well known, population growth, urbanisation and changing middle class size and tastes. In terms of economic evolution, the food price surge comes after the energy price surge, as industrialisation segues into consumption growth (high-income countries consume about 30% more calories than low income nations, but the difference in value is about eight times). Here, we are keenly interested in how the supply side can respond, both in terms of where and how solutions are found, and who is supplying them. We are drawn towards an analogy with the energy industry here: the energy industry has invested heavily in efficiency, and through innovation, clusters of excellence, and access to capital has created solutions, the most obvious of which are renewable energy and shale. The key question for us is, can and will something similar happen in food?

It’s hard to argue that the ingredients that sparked energy’s supply-side response are all present in the food supply chain. In food, there’s huge fragmentation, a lack of coordination, shortages of capital in support industries (infrastructure) and only pockets of isolated innovation. We suspect that the supply-side response may well remain uncoordinated and slower than in other industries. But things are changing. Those who disagree with Thomas Malthus will always back human ingenuity. As well as looking at where the innovators in the supply chain are (from page 10), and where there are sustainably high returns through IP (e.g., seeds, enzymes etc.), we need to think about the macro and micro economic impacts of higher food prices, and soberingly, the geo-political ones.

Slimming down

Could the demand destruction that higher energy prices have precipitated occur in food? There are some important differences between the two that make resolving food imbalances tougher. Food consumption is very fragmented and there is less scope for substitution.

Changing eating habits is much harder than changing the fuel burnt for power. And, ultimately, food spend is less discretionary that energy, i.e., the scope for efficient consumption is more limited and consumers will not (and cannot) voluntarily delay consumption, let alone structurally reduce it. This means that higher food prices, especially in economies where food is a greater portion of household spending, will lead to either lower consumption of discretionary items or a reduced ability to service debt (with consequent effects on asset prices). When oil prices spiked in the late 1970s, US consumers spent c.9% of their income on energy vs. an average of 7% over the previous decade. And yet, the total savings rate rose by c.2% as they overcompensated on spending cuts on other items. 2007-09 saw a similar phenomenon too. Even the most cursory browse through history shows that high food costs can act as a political tinderbox (so too high youth unemployment), and we believe there is a degree of overconfidence with regard to the economic impact of food prices in the West: food costs relative to incomes may look manageable, but when there is no buffer (i.e., a minimal savings rate) then there are problems. Food spend as a percentage of total household consumption expenditure is a relatively benign 14% in the US, versus c.20% for most major European nations and Japan. This rises to c.40% for China and 45% for India. Of course, as wages rise, the proportion of food within total consumption expenditure falls, but that is only after consumption hits a ceiling. Currently, India and China consume about 2,300 and 2,900 calories per capita per day, compared to a DM average of about 3,400. If the two countries eat like the West, then food production must rise by 12%. And if the rest of the world catches up to these levels then that number is north of 50%.

The scramble for Africa’s eggs

In terms of ownership of resources, food, like energy, can be broken into haves and have-nots. While there are countries that have been successful without resources, it is quite clear that inheriting advantages (in this case good soil, climate and water) makes life easier. But that, of course, is only half the battle; what is also required is organisation, capital, education and collaboration to make it happen. Take Africa. It has 60% of the world’s uncultivated land, enviable demographics and lots of water (though not evenly distributed). Basic infrastructure, consolidation of agricultural land and minimal use of fertilisers and crop protection could do wonders for agricultural output in the region. But that’s easier said than done. Several African economies also need better access to information, education, property rights and access to markets and capital. Put another way, it needs better institutions. If Africa does deliver over the coming decades, rising food prices will alter the economics of investing in the region. The next scramble for Africa should be about food (while it is about hard commodities now and in the late 19th century it was about empire size). Fertiliser consumption has a diminishing incremental impact on yields, but Africa (along with several developing economies elsewhere) is far from touching that ceiling. Currently, Africa accounts for just 3% of global agricultural trade, with South Africa and Côte d’Ivoire together accounting for a third of the entire continent’s exports. But if the world wants to feed itself then it needs Africa to emerge as an agricultural powerhouse.

Higher up the production curve is China, which has been industrialising its agriculture as it seeks to move towards self sufficiency. Power consumed by agricultural machinery has almost doubled over the last decade, while the number of tractors per household has tripled, driving per hectare output up by an average of more than 20% over the same period.

Even so, in just the last 10 years China has gone from surplus to deficit in several meat, vegetable and cereal categories. So a lot more needs to be done, and a shortage of water could also prove to be an impediment, especially in some of its remote areas.

The power of the pampas

With significant surpluses in soybeans, maize, meat and oilseeds, Brazil and Argentina have led the Latin American continent in terms of food trade. Current surpluses are 6x and 3x 2000 levels, versus only a 30% increase in the previous decade, and are rising. A key impediment to boosting exports is infrastructure. Food has to travel a long way just to reach the port, and then further still to reach other markets. Forty days is possibly acceptable for iron ore to reach China on a ship from Brazil, but that would prevent several perishable food items from being exported. And hence, solution providers in terms of durability, packaging, refrigeration and processing will be in demand. Also, while you could attribute a lot of the agricultural success of LatAm economies to good conditions, they have also benefitted from the adoption of agricultural innovation. For instance, more than a third of crops planted in the region are as seeds that are genetically modified, versus more than 45% in the US and about 12% in Asia. Genetically modified crops are not new. They provide solutions to some of the most frequent constraints on agricultural yields (resistance to environmental challenges including drought and more efficient absorption of soil nutrients, fertilisers and water) or add value by enhancing nutrient composition or the shelf life of the crop. And while the adoption of GM crops and seeds is far from wholehearted, particularly in Europe, it’s most certainly a key part of the solution in economies that are set to face a more severe food shortage.

The last mango in Paris?

Europe’s deficit/surplus makes for interesting reading. Seventeen of the 27 EU countries face a food trade deficit, and yet, the EU overall recorded a surplus (barely) in 2010 for only the second time in the last 50 years (see chart). Broken down further, the UK is the largest food importer, followed by Germany and Italy, while the Netherlands and France lead exports thanks to their very large processing industries. If Europe’s future is one of relative economic decline, then reduced purchasing power when bidding for scarce food resources is an unappetising prospect. Therefore, it needs all
the innovative solutions it can muster, or import substitution will have to increase. It’s important to note that being in overall surplus or deficit can mask variety at the category level, i.e., Europe is a net importer of beef, fruit & vegetables, and corn, while its exports are helped by alcohol and wine specifically. Japan, in particular, is very challenged. It is the only country in the preceding table to show a deficit in every single food category.

We conclude our trip around the world in North America. Large-scale production, access to markets, a home to innovation
and favourable regulation has meant that the US (and Canada) continues to dominate some of the key agricultural resources such as soybeans, corn, fodder, wheat and oilseeds. Put this self sufficiency together with the medium-term potential for energy self sufficiency and relatively good demographics (better than China), and a rosier prognosis for the US, versus the rest of the Western world and parts of Asia, begins to fall into place.

Agri-dollars on the rise

Before we conclude, we need to devote a few lines to the geo-political and macro economic consequences of higher food prices. It’s likely that countries will act increasingly strategically to secure food supply, and that protections (e.g., high export tariffs) may well rise. It is also likely that there are special bi-lateral deals to access stable and secure food supply.

This could obviously damage the integrity of the WTO-sponsored system. Another consequence might be the emergence of agri-dollars, in the same way that petro-dollars emerged in the 1970s. This may seem far fetched (the value of the world’s energy exports is US$2.3 tn compared to US$1.08 tn for agriculture) but it’s important to think through the consequences. The big exporters, especially those with the scope to grow their output, may well have sustainable surpluses that can be reinvested into their economies (or extracted by a narrow part of society). Similarly, the consequence of being a net importer will be an effective tax on consumption: disposable income in the US would jump if oil was US$25/bbl.

As we have said, we would expect the big gainers of a meaningful rise in food prices in real terms to be Brazil, the US and Canada, while Japan, South Korea and the UK would face challenges. The top chart is important: look how China’s surplus has turned to deficit. What will happen if the Chinese middle class swells as it is expected to? And that’s the rub; what we have been used to in terms of food’s importance is set to change. How food moves around the world is likely to change, and the flow of currency around the world will also likely be impacted.

 

SOURCE:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-24/goodbye-petrodollar-hello-agri-dollar

Russian expert warns of possibility of large-scale war in Middle East

Nov 24, 2012 22:17 Moscow Time

Turkey has asked NATO to deploy “Patriot” missiles on the Turkish side near the Turkish-Syrian border.

In an interview with the Voice of Russia, Russian analyst Konstantin Sivkov said: “Deploying these missiles in Turkey will be dangerous for Syrian military planes – this is obvious. A lesser obvious thing is that Turkey is getting ready for a war against Syria. If an attack on Syria from the territory of Turkey does take place, this will most likely be an attack not of the Turkish army, but of NATO’s forces.”


“The Middle East is getting ready for a large-sale battle which will very likely affect the Russian part of the Caucasus, and this, in its turn, will be reflected on the entire Russia,” Mr. Sivkov added.

Deployment of Patriots in Turkey means no-fly zone for Syria

The planned deployment by NATO countries of Patriot air defence systems on Turkey’s Syria border will actually amount to the imposition of a no-fly zone for Syrian aircraft in circumvention of the UN Security Council.

The opinion has been voiced by the leading research fellow of the Russian Institute for Oriental Studies, Vladimir Kudelev.

He feels that Patriot systems may drastically influence the fighting between the government troops and the opposition in the north of Syria, since the militants will thus get a 200 kilometre – to 250 kilometre-wide “umbrella” all along the Syrian-Turkish border.

The deployment of Patriots would also undermine the role of the UN Security Council, which, experts feel, would hardly authorize any proposal to impose a no-fly zone for Syrian aircraft.

NATO shows great interest in deployment of Patriot missile air-defence systems

Plans for the deployment of the Patriot Missile Air-Defence Systems on the Turkish-Syrian border are defensive in character, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in a telephone talk with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Earlier Moscow voiced its concern over the militarization of that region.

The above-mentioned telephone talk was held on the initiative of the NATO Secretary General. Moscow says that Rasmussen wanted to clarify the situation with the deployment of the Patriot Missile Air-Defence Systems on the Turkish territory. Ankara filed a relevant request to NATO on November 21st. The information that appeared in the press more than once last month said that Turkey was making preparations for appealing to Brussels. Possibly, acting in this way Ankara wanted to indirectly put pressure on its NATO allies. As you know, till recently NATO was strongly against getting involved in a conflict between Turkey and Syria, a political analyst, Stanislav Tarasov, says.

“They started asking NATO to interfere in the conflict, using the Alliance’s Clause No.5 – the defence of territories. Which means that they wanted to drag NATO into the conflict and thus, to ensure its military presence in the region. NATO said “No”. Then they resorted to Clause No. 4 – the provision of help”.

NATO said that it would consider Turkey’s request without any delay. And Germany’s Foreign Ministry said that Turkey’s request should be met without any delay. Media reports even said that Berlin was ready not only to provide the Patriot Missile Air-Defence Systems to Turkey but also to send 120 Bundeswehr soldiers to the region. Turkey has not only moved its forces to its border with Syria but has also approved a law enabling it to bring its troops into the territory of its neighbor in case of a military threat. The reason for such a large- scale militarization was firing missiles into the Syrian territory, which official Damascus called an accident. Any escalation of this conflict is inadmissible, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on November 23rd. Moscow is well aware of Turkey’s concern as well as of NATO’s arguments but what is important in this case is the potential, not intentions – that is why any militarization on the Turkish-Syrian border may lead to an uncontrollable turn of events, the Russian minister said.

“Any accumulation of arms creates certain risks and urges all those who would like like to resort to the exterior factor of force to finally use it. We believe that this will not happen, and that all outside players will display maximum responsibility in assessing the on-going developments in the region’.

In the diplomatic language this means that the events in Syria may start developing according to the Libyan Scenario, experts say. As you know, the opposition is losing its support, and Assad has a military superiority in Syria now, an Oriental studies expert, Azhdar Kurtov, says.

“The Syrian-Turkish border has a sophisticated mountain relief. Under such conditions, combat aviation is a very effective method of fighting against the rebels. Thus, if Turkey deploys the Patriot Missile Air-Defence Systems on its territory, it will be able to block Syria using its own aviation in the border regions on its own territory, which may change the turn of military developments in the region. When the overthrowing of the Gaddafi regime was under way, a no-fly zone was established over Libya. Something like that may be created near the Turkish-Syrian border”.

Moscow’s fears may also be caused by something that is not directly linked with the crisis in Syria, a Turkish political analyst, Barysh Adybelli, says.

“Moscow believes that in case the Patriot Misslile Air-Defence Systems are deployed in Turkey, they can be used as one of the elements of the early warning system – that is, as one of the elements of the European missile defence system which the USA is ardently defending by now”.

Official Ankara reacted to Moscow’s statements on November 23rd. Turkey’s Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan called Moscow’s reaction to a possible deployment of the Patriot Missile Air-Defence systems erroneous, adding that Russia is trying to present Turkey’s domestic issue as its own problem. Fears remain though.

Rasmussen, Lavrov discuss Turkey`s request for Patriot missiles

NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen assured Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that plans of the alliance to deploy Patriot air defense missiles in Turkey are of purely defensive.

Mr. Rasmussen and Mr. Lavrov had a phone conversation on Friday initiated by NATO chief.

A statement released by the Russian Foreign Ministry after the talks says that Mr. Lavrov expressed his concerns over NATO`s plans to place Patriot air missiles on the Turkish-Syrian border.

He mentioned Russia’s initiative to help Ankara and Damascus be able to discuss all differences directly amid the increasing military potential in the region in order to avoid incidents.

Russian reaction to Patriot missile deployment ‘erroneous’ – Turkish PM

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said that Russia’s reaction to the deployment of the Patriot air defense systems on the border with Syria, which Ankara requested from the NATO on Wednesday, was “erroneous”.

Answering the question about the Moscow’s reaction to Turkey’s request to NATO, the official representative of the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation Alexander Lukashevich noted on Thursday that Russia considered the militarization of the Syrian-Turkish border to be an alarm signal. “I believe Russia’s statement to be very erroneous”, – the Turkish Prime Minister said in this regard to accompanying journalists on his return from Pakistan from the summit of the “Islamic group of eight”.

Russia warns Turkey against Patriot missiles

Russia has expressed its concern over the militarization of the Turkish-Syrian border, the VoR correspondent Polina Chernitsa has cited the Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich who commented on Turkey’s request to deploy Patriot missiles on the Syrian border.

Moscow would like Turkey to contribute to the beginning of the inter-Syria dialogue rather than flex its military muscles, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said on Thursday.

“The militarization of the Syrian-Turkish border is a dismal signal,” Lukashevich said, referring to Turkey’s recent request to deploy Patriot anti-missile systems to protect its border with Syria.

He urged Turkey to interact more with the Syrian opposition so as to help start the inter-Syria dialogue as soon as possible.

Turkey already hosted the complex twice. in 1991 and 2003 during the two Iraqi campaigns but never used it.

Voice of Russia, Interfax, RIA

 

SOURCE:
http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_11_24/Russian-expert-warns-of-possibility-of-large-scale-war-in-Middle-East/

Russia urges united action against Israeli aggression

Moscow has called on the Arab League and the Middle East Quartet comprising Russia, the European Union (EU), UN, and US, to work together to end frequent Israeli aggressions against the Palestinians.

“The Quartet needs…to work together with the Arab League representatives and work out solutions together…to restart Israeli-Palestinian talks,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday.

Lavrov made the remarks after at least one Palestinian was killed and seven others were injured by Israeli fire in the southern Gaza Strip despite an Egypt-mediated ceasefire agreement between the two sides on Wednesday.

Over 160 Palestinians, including women and children, were killed and about 1,200 others were injured in the Israeli attacks on Gaza that were carried out during the eight-day period starting November 14.

In retaliation, the Palestinian resistance fighters fired rockets and missiles into Israeli cities, killing at least five Israelis.

The Russian minister had also on November 15 lashed out at the Middle East Quartet for its failure to establish peace in the region.

Israel frequently carries out airstrikes and other attacks on the Gaza Strip, saying the acts of aggression are being conducted for defensive purposes. However, in violation of international law, disproportionate force is always used and civilians are often killed and injured.

The attacks rage on while Israel keeps up its crippling blockade on Gaza, which it imposed on the enclave in 2007.

MAM/HMV/SS

SOURCE:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/11/23/274150/russia-urges-united-action-against-israel/